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美国:种种迹象指向衰退 [转贴 2007-11-18 23:28:34]  删除... 
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美国:种种迹象指向衰退
 
 

费支出的放缓预计将拖累美国本季度的国内生产总值(GDP)增幅。美国第3季度的GDP增幅曾反弹至3.9%,但预计本季度将下降到1%以下(按年率计)。美联储(Federal Reserve)可能会进一步降息。联邦基金利率就算跌至2%也不足为怪。不仅如此。股市的一些板块已经开始消化这种宏观经济前景。标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)今年以来上涨近3%,但金融类股却下跌了16%,周期性消费类股也下跌了11% 。

接下来,金融市场和美国经济当中,那些通常会对消费支出变化作出反应的领域将受到波及。按实际价格计算,美国的消费者支出已经前所未有地连续63个季度取得增长,远远超过了上世纪80年代的繁荣时期。这一令人称奇的发展,证明了宽松的货币政策、慷慨的财政预算、蓬勃上涨的房地产价格和全面而丰富的信贷供应所具有的强大功效。

但能源价格的蹿升确实正在开始刺痛美国经济,这是消费者信心指数为何开始下滑的一个原因。美国每天进口1000万桶原油,而油价升至每桶超过90美元,不啻是对美国经济加税。依照传统的经验法则,如果能源价格保持在现有水平,单此一项便会导致消费支出增幅减少1.5个百分点。当前的汽油价格为每加仑3美元,比1年前高出80美分,相当于增加了1000亿美元的税赋。取暖油期货已达创纪录的每加仑2.62美元,比年初高出60% 。据美国能源部(Department of Energy)估算,今年冬天,美国每个家庭的取暖费用将提高22%,从去年的1466美元上升至1785美元。

 

与此同时,就业市场也明显放慢。工资的同比增幅不足1%,为2004年春天以来的最低水平。现在只有三大部门还在创造新的就业机会:政府部门、医疗/教育、休闲/接待产业。大约60%的行业都在裁员:包括金融服务业、制造业(200万份工作与房地产相关)、零售业和住宅建筑业,其中,住宅建筑业在过去的两个月中已经裁员5万多人。切记,当失业率上升1个或更多百分点的时候,没有哪次不随之出现经济衰退的宏观背景。

9月是住宅市场的分水岭。建筑商将新屋开工数减至10年来最低水平,按年率计算只有119万套;同时,仍有440万套房产待价而沽,较上年同期增长16%。这预示着持续的通货紧缩压力和更低的销售量。为了清理库存,新屋开工数可能会被迫减少到80万套。

住宅房地产是一项高达23万亿美元的资产类别,但这个市场将会连续多年承受重压,而消费者至今尚未感受到财富递减效应(negative wealth effect)带来的最深刻的切肤之痛。

住宅价格创纪录的上升使得美国家庭感到更为富有,并愿意花销掉更多的税后收入。没有哪个经济周期中的消费支出增长曾如此疯狂地大幅超出个人收入增长——在过去六年中,每年高出近1个百分点。自2001年末以来,美国家庭的债务/可支配收入比已从100%蹿至创纪录的136%。在这六年中,美国个人积累的债务已达到过去40年的总和。这曾经是一个有史以来最为人津津乐道的信贷循环,但这一进程正在逆转,并将进行多年的调整。

我们预计,接下来,住宅市场和借贷控制将会对消费支出产生滞后影响。就业增长放缓和不断上升的失业率也会波击到实际收入。消费支出中,35%属于周期性消费或非必须消费,它们受到的影响将尤为明显。具有讽刺意味的是,在股市中,人们对这类股票2008年收益增幅的普遍预期却是最乐观的。

作者系美林(Merrill Lynch)首席北美经济学家

 

 

ALL SIGNALS ARE POINTING IN THE DIRECTION OF A US RECESSION
 
 
 

The

consumer slowdown is expected to drag US gross domestic product growth to below 1 per cent (annualised) in the current quarter from the 3.9 per cent rebound in the third quarter. More easing by the Federal Reserve is likely. Much more. We would not be surprised to see Fed funds go as low as 2 per cent. Segments of the stock market have begun to price in our macro view. The S&P 500 is up almost 3 per cent this year, but financials have fallen 16 per cent and consumer cyclicals are down 11 per cent.

The next leg is likely to see a spillover into areas of the market and the economy that historically respond to shifts in consumer spending. In real terms, consumer spending has risen for an unprecedented 63 consecutive quarters, far surpassing the 1980s boom. This amazing development attests to the powerful effects of easier monetary policy, fiscal largesse, booming home prices and widespread credit availability.

But the run up in energy prices is really starting to bite, one reason why consumer confidence has started to slide. Oil's move above $90 a barrel is akin to a tax hike on the US economy, which imports 10m barrels of crude daily. Traditional rules of thumb would suggest that, if current levels are maintained, energy prices alone will drain as much as 1.5 percentage points from consumer spending. Petrol prices at $3 a gallon is more than 80 cents higher than a year ago. This is equivalent to a $100bn tax hit. Heating oil futures just hit a record $2.62 a gallon – up more than 60 per cent since the start of the year. The Department of Energy is estimating the average home heating bill will increase by 22 per cent this winter to $1,785 from $1,466 last year.

 

Meanwhile, a visible slowing of the jobs market is under way. Payroll growth is running barely above 1 per cent year-on-year, the slowest since spring 2004. Just three broad sectors are creating jobs – government, health/education and leisure/accommodation. About 60 per cent of the employment pie is shedding jobs: financial services, manufacturing (with 2m jobs linked to housing), retailing and residential construction, which has shed more than 50,000 jobs in the past two months. Keep in mind, there has never been a time when the unemployment rate rose 1 percentage point or more without a recessionary backdrop unfolding.

In the housing market, September was a watershed. Builders cut housing starts to a decade-low 1.19m (annualised rate), and there are still 4.4m unsold homes for sale, 16 per cent more than a year ago. This points to sustained deflation pressure and lower sales volumes. Housing starts could be forced as low as 800,000 to clear the market.

Housing is a $23,000bn asset class, but this market is going to be under pressure for years and the deepest retrenchment from the negative wealth effect has yet to be felt by consumers.

The record surge in US house prices made households feel richer and willing to spend more of their after-tax earnings. No other cycle has seen consumer spending growth so wildly exceed personal income growth – by nearly a full percentage point annually over the past six years. Since late 2001, households' debt-to-disposable income ratio has surged from 100 per cent to a record of 136 per cent. In six years, the personal sector tacked on as much debt as the prior 40 years combined. This has been the most pronounced credit cycle in history, but this process is now in reverse and will prove to be a multi-year adjustment.

The story we expect to emerge is the lagged effect the housing market and reduced credit availability will have on consumer spending. Slower employment growth and rising unemployment will also hit real incomes. The 35 per cent of consumer spending that is cyclical or discretionary will be especially vulnerable. Ironically, this is the part of the equity market that has the most ambitious consensus earnings growth forecast for 2008.

The writer is chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch

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